Sunday, September 15, 2002

The Risk of West Nile Virus to People: Correction

In yesterday's post on this subject, I incorrectly calculated that "the likelihood of an individual getting bitten by an infected mosquito and getting sick, seriously ill, and dying is about 1 in 100,000." This statement should actually read: the likelihood of a person getting sick from being bitten by an infected mosquito, becoming seriously ill, and dying is about 1 in 300,000. This figure is derived from the following calculations: (1) 0.0033 x 0.01 x 0.1 = 0.0000033; (2) 1/0.0000033 = 303,030. Also, note that the calculated risk of 1 in 300,000 doesn't account for the initial probability that a person will be bitten by an infected mosquito, which is unknown.

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